Two things should be the most imporant things to look after. It is not that other things are not important but if one has to point out just 2 things that have to be done to solve the problems fast, I would bet my money on the follwing two:
1. Removal of Abject Poverty
2. Ensuring Gainful Employment
Now, the NREG scheme started by the government is a very positive step in the direction of first goal. In the least it will ensure food for two times. But that is not sufficient. There is a hell lot more to be done.
As for the second option, nothing is working. Nothing. People are graduating and not getting a job. That is the worst thing because that breeds all kindof ills. An educated idle mind is more dangerous that uneducated idle minds. So, the whole effort of improving higher education will be wasted if we do not provide employment to te people who are getting graduated.
What is the solution? How can the government empower the people to make themselves useful. The easy and temporary solution is to establish institutes and such to employ. But this is unsustainable and inefficient and costlymethod. Other way is to boost industry and service sector. As of now, only nearly 25% people are working in industry and 16% in industry/manufacturing. These statistics together have to shoot up to at least 60%. If that happens we will have achieved muchof our goal.
I am sure there are many innovative solutions to overcome this, just when and where they will come into play is the question. I hope soon.
Nobel prize for economics for the year 2008 has been awarded to Paul Krugman, an economics professor at Princeton and also a New York Times columnist. I have been reading the columns of Mr. Krugman for sometime now and knew that he was a very famous economist and busily engaged in analyzing the policy decisions of the US government. But, what I did not know was that he was also a professor and a highly regarded academician who has done some great work in the field of international trade and economic geography. I read some of his interviews today after getting the prize and one can tell, he is very very happy. It is nice to see that. He said he had been expecting a Nobel but not just now. Guess, he has a pretty good assessment of himself and the system. He gets an equivalent of $1.4 Million in Swedish Kroans. For a change, after quite long he is the single recipient of the award. For past many years, it was being awarded to more than one person.
In other award news, Arvind Adiga has won the Man Booker prize for his “The White Tiger” defeating Amitav Ghosh and Salman Rushdie among others. Good for Indian fiction, I say. Now, more people will get their works eyeballed at least. I am still to read the book. Since it has won, I will too eyeball it once at least.
How good it must feel to get rewarded for a work which the world respects as high class. I think rewarding is a good practice and a never failing incentive at times. Award and recognition can act as great pushers. It is nice.
Just weeks ago, we were discussing possibilities of Lehman and Merrill being in trouble, but they were there. Hell, only yesterday I wrote about how Lehman was looking for buyers and measures to go a controlled path so that the markets are least affected. This morning I wake up and the news is that there is no more Lehman, AND there is no more Merrill Lynch. The news has been flabbergasting. All on a weekend. In 2 days, 2 of the world’s largest investment banks are no more. Something as dramatic as this has not happened since the Great Depression. It is unbelievable. And the worst thing is that no one knows yet what is in store and how much wreckage is yet to come due to the complex financial instruments that have been traded. Some people are saying that this will bring about a new financial order. Well, I certainly hope that it will be better and more stable.
The news has not only affected the US markets but also the markets overseas. Here, in India, both the BSE and NIFTY have fallen and shares of major companies across many sectors have taken a plunge. I know I am saying this again and again but it is hard to believe that there is no more Merrill Lynch. It is sold to Bank of America for nearly $45 billion which was worth $100 billion last year. Lehman is filing for bankruptcy.
All aside, the concern I as well as all must have is that what will happen of the employees of these companies not only in the US but also in the foreign branches? It is a messy situation and the Wall Street is bathed in blood ( figuratively speaking ). Indeed an unusual weekend it was.
And that is when there are still firms like WaMu and AIG to take care of. This is gonna be a long month.
The news about Lehman going for an almost firesale and a sale in any case, has been splashing since few days all over the media. Check out at : News about Lehman Crisis
This comes about right after the great rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddi Mac by the Federal agency of the US government. The move was anticipated as a stopper for more bad news and rotting companies but as it has turned out, investments continue to get sour and companies are still at high risk, along with the danger of whole of the market and eventually the economy going down a whirlwind path. To me, it is particularly astonishing because I thought, as did most of the people, that banks like Lehman were more prudent and perhaps would be able to manage the situation. As it turns out, it is not about the ability to manage. The forces of market are far more weighty and dangerous that a single firm could contain. The news is doing the rounds that Merrill Lynch and Washington Mutual are in for a similar fate if they do not get up and do something right now. If Lehman goes badly, Merrill may be next in line with all the pressures, although the situation there is not so critical, and may I add, YET. It was assumed that the credit crunch would stop after Bears Stearns was bailed out. But it did not. And it is not to be predicted that how much longer and how much wider it is going to go on.
In all of this, a student of economics should ask that are there any lessons to be drawn here about free markets, capitalism, socialism, socialized capitalism, government intervention and globalization etc? I would say that when we will look at these events in hindsight, there will be many many lessons. However, what all this has certainly done is to question the robustness of capitalized markets and their efficiency to deal with the problems. Why is it that the fellow banks and financial institutions are not coming to the rescue of the beleaguered Lehman when its collapse could spell a bigger doom which will take them down too. Why are they asking the government to support the bad credits and intervene for stabilizing the markets. Is it not the inherent and imminent rule of capitalism that the profits as well as losses will be shared by the markets. Why then are then the losses expected to be turned over to the government?
Financial markets have often come to the stage of creating havoc in the whole of economy. They seem to be periodically going into a crash state after a boom state. Had it been a completely free market without any government intervention at all, things would have been different and I mean better by that? Is it this unexplained camaraderie between the two which is responsible for bad turns. Or can we ask the question that capitalism is not able to deal on its own and that it is most of the times the government which supports it?
Altogether, it is a very interesting time for not only financial analysts but also for general economists. What amazes me often is that the complexities of the financial instruments( like exotic derivatives) have grown so much that it is hard to estimate and calculate their worth even by those who are creating them. Something like the Frankenstein’s monster. Aren’t they?
I am waiting for the Monday morning and the markets to open and see what is the fate waiting this crisis. Meanwhile, the decision about Lehman should hopefully become clear in the coming day.
When I did not use to follow The Economist in detail and gave it just a cursory look, I thought that what a great magazine it was and what rational thinking people behind it. BUT, since I started following it more carefully and in depth and detail, with regards to India, I have found a very bigoted attitude shown by the magazine. They seem to be saying that all the economic policy decisions that we make are wrong and imprudent. They said in clear terms that India should not be granted a NSG waiver. They have also criticized India for protecting the interest of its farmers by saying no to the Doha negotiations and then accepting profitable regional agreements at ASEAN. There have been other articles too and all in the same vein. I am not able to figure what the problem is. The surprising thing is that most of the times the articles are not even argued from all ( at least 2) perspectives. Almost in all cases, it is a very skewed and bigoted analysis.
All this in my eyes has greatly reduced the credibility of “The Economist”. I am sure about the inherent bias and single minded view towards India. This leads me to doubt the credibility of other news items concerning other countries too. But then again, when has been media free from prejudice? They are after all the puppets in the hands of large multi national corporations.
India has finally been able to get the NSG waiver and mostly clean, without any major draft amendments. In all of this process, I really admired the confidence, the relentlessness and the new found assertiveness of our diplomatic mission. It is to be complemented. I think that even if in actuality, the deal may not come out be the greatest benefactor to the country, symbolically it is a great achievement.
I am unable to understand the great fuss that the left is making about this deal? What is their main problem? That it is costly? I think that can be managed if we think in terms of private public partnership and I assume that is how it is going to be. If the cost is their only concern, then that can be solved I am pretty sure. For this they have made such great statements like Prime Minister should resign etc. It is all bullshit and exposes the fact that all they know to do is shout slogans and protest. I have found that Left faction in our country is a destructive force. They offer no solutions to the problems that they decry. There are just sweeping generalizations from their side about what needs to be done. Never is there a concrete plan of action. Lifting the masses, reducing poverty, protecting the poor. It is all good. But how do you propose to do it? Give me an answer to that. Simply by cutting down the solution that others provide? I think that they need to realize that offering a solution is their job too. It is not like everybody is answerable to them. They are equally answerable.
CPI(M) has been ruling the state of West Bengal for nearly 30 years now and still West Bengal has the maximum number of slum dwellers, maximum poverty and joblessness, falling economy and falling standards of living. 30 years is not a small time. It is like they have almost shown that we can not expect them to help us move forward, not at a great pace at any rate. If only they were constructive, then with their concern for the poor, we could have bridged the gaps of inequality much sooner than we expect too.
I dont know but often times I have a feeling that I am a budding economist, which was most recently fuelled after I watched the Commanding Heights for a second time. I just love the long lectures that economists give, the way they view things and how it is all in some sense a philosophical realization of the existing world.
Microeconomics is like the zoom in of the camera, seeing the nano particles and making them interact right, whereas macroeconomics is the zoom out, taking the upper hand, guiding the herd not really concerned about each member. It all just thrills me and sometimes I wonder that whether it is not possible to apply the concepts and philosophies of quantum physics and quantum information theory to microeconomics. It draws some uncanny parallels.
Maybe, I wish dearly and I hope that I would get to study the subject in great detail and gain a wonderful breathtaking insight.
On the side, youtube is the best product of information revolution. There is so much wealth there waiting to be shared that I cannot just get enough of it. It is a bad things sometimes but its OK.
Tata Nano has been a topic of much debate since it has been put before the world. It is going to be the cheapest car in the world. No mean feat that is. And kudos to Ratan Tata for pulling that. It is exemplary. But as good as it sounds as an achievement, it has created quite a furore in economic and political circles. There are plenty of issues which are in focus which I am jotting here:
Congestion of already congested, narrow roads.
Pollution
Safety, Accidents
Fuel Price and Consumption
Market Reception and success
How will it help the economy
We already know what condition our roads are in. They are narrow, congested even with the few four wheelers that are there and pot holes abound. In this situation if there is a car with every household what will the condition be we can hardly imagine. To this the arguments are that the deteriorated condition will force the government to take action and better the roads. That’s being fairly optimistic but I think that is possible.
It will enable the lower middle class to be owning a vehicle ( a four wheeler) who might have had a two wheeler till now and in that sense, it reduces the number and chances of accidents ( two wheelers being more risky ). But, there are also questions being raised about the safety in Nano as in if an accident occurs then the riders are prone to getting hurt. About these aspects I think that as the demand increases, the technology will better itself and safety measures and fuel efficiency will improve.
The question of pollution stays and there will be a definite increase in pollution.For this I think we should not blame nano solely but urge the engineers to find a really good way to curb pollution. Fuel prices and consumption will be affected. I am not so sure about the numbers but someone told me that two wheelers saved fuel while a 4 wheeler drank more of it. But we are here reducing the number of two wheelers so that saves some fuel. I am lost on the fuel aspect here. Enlighten me someone, if you will.
As far as I see, there will be a welcome given to Nano since now most of the lower middle class would be able to afford a car and that would mean an improved standard of living, a better status and to some extent increase in confidence.
How it helps the economy? Well, for one more production would mean more jobs, more utilization of materials hence growth. As Tata proposes to issue the parts to be assembled at various assembly centres run as franchises, it would employ many people. So, it increases employment, however slightly. Slight is better than naught after all.
There is the SEZ issue of Nandigram also attached to it. Tata Nano has come forth with many polemical strings attached to it. Only time will tell whether it is for the good or for the worse but this much is clear that it has come at a time and in a way where it will do nothing to curb or prevent environmental degradation but is surely an emblem of hope and signal of the rise of new, innovative corporate India.
If you ask me at this moment that what is the single most shocking thing that has happened to me, my answer would be : my life. It has taken turns once not even imaginable and I am hoping for another equally surprising twist in this tale. It has been adventurous and its tumultuous right now but what is most amazing in a good and bad way at the same time is that I cannot feel it. It has all made me numb ( err, not very comfortably though ).
This I have learned that the only trouble you can ever create for yourself is the love for other people be it family, friends, teachers….anyone. If and when you get free of it you are invincible. Unfortunately, no one can really survive with getting rid of it also. You need it more than anything. Its like a paradox.
Enough of that. Lawrence of Arabia is a looooooooong movie. It’s very well shot and disturbingly lovely. Disturbingly because I felt an unease while seeing it and yet liked it to an extent. It is surely intriguing. Cinematography is absolutely wonderful. All the desert scenes are beautiful. Seems like a tribute to the desert.
And, I have been introduced to Monty Python only few days back and I can say that Life of Brian easily qualifies as one of the best comedy movies ever. The style is hilarious. No wonder they are so famous. I had earlier seen John Cleese in Fawlty Towers and became and instant fan but was never aware that this man had almost created a sort of revolution in the comic world. All I can do is applause and laugh out loud or ROTFLMAO ( in sms lang).
Spiderman I was good. Speiderman II was BAD. I hate Kirsten Dunst. Don’t know why and Toby McGuire is good only in the spidey costume. Enthu for Spiderman III has gone down heavily.
Peacemaker was a BAD movie. Nicole Kidman was ridiculous and so was the plot. George Clooney looked handsome though. Irritatingly light handling of a serious subject. Seemed like another Sunny Deol flick to me.
Heroes is a catchy show. It grabs your attention and I am following it even after 20 episodes. Peter Petrelli ( Milo Ventimiglia ) is a heart throb and on my desktop . Claire is beautiful.
Sometimes its so painful to reveal secrets even to yourself but that’s completely different.
Life will rock! Won’t it?…. I hope so Whatever is left of it , I will try to make something out of it.
. Claire is beautiful.
Whatever is left of it , I will try to make something out of it.
